No authoritative performances in the league stage

A month after taking a shot at the semi-final line up for the 2011 World Cup, it is now obvious that that either India or Australia will make it to the semi-final. That quarter-final will be played 1 day after the 8th anniversary of an inconsequential World Cup game, the last time these 2 teams met at the World Cup.

The oddest part about the first round was that none of the major teams actually stamped their authority on the league stage. Australia was expected to blow away opponents with their bowling, but the only teams to suffer the wrath of Australia's 'quick gun Murugan' attack were Zimbabwe & New Zealand. Sri Lanka, Kenya, Canada & Pakistan were largely untroubled. Pakistan outwitted Sri Lanka and Australia, nearly slipped up against Canada and got thrashed by New Zealand. New Zealand got thrashed by Australia and Sri Lanka, but thrashed Pakistan in-turn.

India and England tried their best to give Group B a lot of close games, and looked thoroughly unconvincing. While England did win against #3 ranked South Africa, India's wins came against teams ranked #8 and #9. South Africa were commanding overall, but had a brain fade against England. They've been celebrating the last over win against India as evidence that they've finally got rid of the 'chokers' tag. Sadly though, that win came in an inconsequential game. They will need to do this in a knock-out game to prove that their debutant players don't get the choker tag along with the national cap! West Indies and Bangladesh were generally incompetent but did show some promise.

Sri Lanka and Pakistan did enough to suggest that the best way to catch Australia unawares was on a slow turning wicket. I don't particularly care if Ricky Ponting thinks such wickets are essentially 'rolled mud'. Since this is an ICC event, and the ICC has control over everything that happens at the ground, I assume that the pitches are prepared by the ICC's team. If that's the case, Ponting can't complain about anything.

If the pitches are prepared by the hosting country's curator(s), then you have to question if that's fair. For a World Cup event, home advantage should be limited to playing in familiar surroundings, getting a lot of crowd support, being able to include replacement players at really short notice, etc.

I don't know if Ponting will be playing during the 2015 World Cup, but I'd be interested to see how he reacts if the Sri Lankan captain says they were playing on a trampoline after seeing balls whiz past their heads at Perth. He wouldn't like it, would he?

As for the semi-final lineup, it does seem from the Australia-New Zealand and New Zealand-Zimbabwe matches at Ahmedabad (venue for Australia v India) that the side batting first can be blown away. Mirpur (Pakistan v West Indies & New Zealand v South Africa) definitely assists spinners. Colombo (Premadasa) also shows that spin will rule. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the semi-final lineup was Australia v Pakistan and South Africa v Sri Lanka.

In other news, Shoaib Akhtar said bye bye to international cricket after a mercurial career that included 100 mph deliveries, drugs, ball tampering, fighting with a teammate, faking injury, etc.

Labels: 2011, 2011 world cup, akhtar, prediction, retire, shoaib akhtar, world cup

Thus spake Jagadish @ 11:53 pm | Sledge/Read 16 sledge(s)
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Predicting the 2011 World Cup semi-finalists

If the last couple of weeks were primarily around World Cup selections and omissions, the focus this week is on players being ruled out through injury (Mike Hussey, Nathan Hauritz, Eoin Morgan and Praveen Kumar).

A few others like Jacques Kallis, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, Paul Collingwood, Sachin Tendulkar, Virender Sehwag, Gautam Gambhir, Ricky Ponting and Shaun Tait are still out of action, and we'll definitely hear about more withdrawals over the next few days.

Moving on from injuries, can we use the period from after the 2007 World Cup to identify trends related to how various teams would perform?

I'm restricting the analysis to games involving only the top 9 teams. (Australia, Bangladesh, England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka & West Indies). Where required, I filter out matches not played on the sub-continent. Although Pakistan isn't a host, having played there gives teams a half-decent idea of the conditions they can expect at other venues. One problem though is that West Indies has only played 3 ODIs in the sub-continent in the period, and one was rained out!

The parameters I consider are overall win-loss record, team stability (measured as # of matches / # of players), overall batting average, batting average for top order (#1-#4), middle order (#5-#7) & lower order (#8-#11), overall bowling average, wickets per match and overall bowling economy rate.

Here's how the rankings look across those parameters.

W/L record in the sub-continent: India, South Africa, Australia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, England, New Zealand, Bangladesh & West Indies

Team stability (no sub-continent filter): India, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, West Indies, Sri Lanka & England

Overall batting average: Australia, South Africa, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, England, West Indies, Bangladesh & New Zealand

Top order batting average: South Africa, Australia, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, West Indies, England, Bangladesh & New Zealand

Middle order: Australia, India, Pakistan, England, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, West Indies & South Africa

Lower order: New Zealand, Sri Lanka, South Africa, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, England, Australia & West Indies

Bowling average: Sri Lanka, South Africa, New Zealand, England, Pakistan, Australia, India, Bangladesh & West Indies

Wickets per match: South Africa, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, England, Bangladesh, Australia, India, New Zealand & West Indies

Economy rate: New Zealand, Sri Lanka, South Africa, West Indies, England, Australia, Pakistan, Bangladesh & India

Assign ranks to each of the teams in the categories (e.g. for the sub-continent w/l record data, the ranks would be 1: India, 2: South Africa, 3: Australia, etc.). Add up the total ranks across all categories. The teams with the lowest 4 totals are the most likely to get to the semis based on the past trends.

Team	Total
Australia	35
Bangladesh	61
England	52
India	38
New Zealand	48
Pakistan	39
South Africa	29
Sri Lanka	35
West Indies	68

This indicates that the 4 semi-finalists would be South Africa, Australia, Sri Lanka & India with Pakistan also being in the reckoning. Sri Lanka & Australia are in group A while the South Africa & India are in group B. So at least it won't be an impossible situation.

A few things are very obvious from the individual parameter rankings: South Africa have had a fragile middle order. Australia's lower order batting has been weak & their bowling in the sub-continent hasn't been too great. Sri Lanka's bowling has done a great job so far. India's bowling has been downright pathetic. Pakistan are sort of average across all parameters and so suffer in comparison to teams who have good stats across 3-4 parameters & bad ones in the remaining parameters. New Zealand's tail end batting and bowling (econ rate) have been really good. England have trouble with their batting. Bangladesh gets saved by their middle & lower order pretty much each time.

Labels: 2011, 2011 world cup, prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 11:52 pm | Sledge/Read 19 sledge(s)
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A strong link between the IPL and the T20 World Cup

Based on statistical evidence^*, Mumbai or Bangalore will win the IPL and 11 out of the 16 teams playing in the T20 World Cup have no chance of winning the World Cup.

Here're the damning statistics:

• Mumbai or Bangalore will win the 2010 IPL tournament. The previous 2 editions have been won by Jaipur (league topper) and Hyderabad (4th on the league table).
  
• The only sides with a reasonable chance of success at the T20 World Cup are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Ireland, Pakistan and Zimbabwe. The World Cup winning side has never included even a single player who played in the preceding IPL tournament.
  
• Based on current evidence from IPL tournaments preceding a T20 World Cup (sample size: 1), the top 2 run-getters are usually not good enough (or too old) to even feature in their national side's squad. So, the only consequence of Suresh Raina and Rohit Sharma hitting a real purple (orange?) patch is that they will eventually not play at the 2010 T20 World Cup. The only other real contenders are Herschelle Gibbs and Mahendra Singh Dhoni, but they'd need to score something like 300+ runs across 2 innings to race to the top of the 2010 IPL run-getters list.
  
• 3 out of the top 5 wicket-takers at an IPL event played in a T20 World Cup that immediately followed. Hence, at least one out of Pragyan Ojha, Amit Mishra and Irfan Pathan will definitely be called up to play at the World Cup. The first one to have a confirmed ticket booking on a trans-Pacific flight, or willing to travel by road, will get the nod.
  
• West Indies will continue a rich tradition of the hosts (1996 World Cup and 2002 Champions Trophy being examples) never winning a 'World Cup' like event. In much the same manner that the 'home' team has never won an IPL to date.

* - All data is valid as of before the first semi-final of the 2010 IPL event

Labels: indian premier league, ipl 2010, prediction, statistic, twenty20, twenty20 world cup

Thus spake Jagadish @ 11:39 pm | Sledge/Read 1 sledge(s)
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IPL 2010 semi-final prediction

We're pretty much at the half-way stage of the league round of the 2010 IPL. At this point in time, Mumbai, with 6 wins from 7 games is the runaway leader, and has definitely sewn up a semi-final slot.

The remaining 3 are the tough ones to predict. In 2008, 7 wins was enough for Delhi to sneak into the semis ahead of Mumbai. In 2009, Hyderabad sneaked in ahead of Mohali though both had 7 wins.

So it is fair to say that 7 wins out of the 14 games (i.e. winning 50% of the games) should be sufficient. Bangalore, Jaipur and Delhi have 4 wins. Hyderabad and Kolkata have 3 wins. Chennai has 2 and Mohali has 1.

That said, momentum is a huge factor, and teams can get going with just 2-3 wins in a row.

The arrival of players from Australia, England and New Zealand will be a significant factor. Which teams are likely to benefit?

Bangalore: Pietersen, Steven Smith and Ross Taylor are the new arrivals. Bangalore's batting has been awesome, especially their top 3-4. But Kohli, Dravid, White & Morgan have been untested and with Pietersen & Taylor joining, this would mean Morgan and possibly White being left out.

Chennai: Hussey and Ntini are the new arrivals, with Ntini returning from injury. They should really have found some hospital as a sponsor given how much they've invested in Flintoff, Oram and Ntini. The bowling leaks far too many runs, and Ntini won't actually change the status quo.

Delhi: Daniel Vettori. This could mean Mishra and Vettori bowling in tandem. So unless Maharoof has a couple of excellent games, he'll be sitting out.

Hyderabad: No new arrivals.

Jaipur: No new arrivals.

Kolkata: McCullum. Their batting has really been pathetic, clicking twice and their highest total is only 180-odd. So his entry will hopefully result in some better performances in the first 5-10 overs.

Mohali: No new arrivals - Hopes is injured.

Mumbai: No new arrivals.

Given the influx, it is quite possible that Bangalore and Kolkata will make it to the semi-finals along with Mumbai provided Kolkata's bowlers learn something from Wasim. Between Delhi and Hyderabad, I'd go for Delhi because their bowling is better than Hyderabad's.

So the semi-final lineup will be Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi and Kolkata (in order of points from the league stage).

Labels: indian premier league, ipl 2010, prediction, twenty20

Thus spake Jagadish @ 11:30 pm | Sledge/Read 4 sledge(s)
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Are 50-over ODIs in danger actually?

Asking if the 50-over game is in danger sounds timely considering the following:

• I, and I suspect several others, yawned after realizing that two 50-over ODI tournaments will be in progress simultaneously (the 7 ODIs between Australia & England and the 4-match tri-series involving New Zealand, India & Sri Lanka.
  
• Sachin Tendulkar has a proposal to save the format from becoming irrelevant.
  
• The ECB announced that domestic games would be 40-overs a side from the 2010 season.

The ICC keeps bleating about how it is proud that there are 3 viable formats of the game, and that all three can co-exist. That's actually rubbish. If the scheduling of tours & tournaments doesn't change significantly, one form of the game (and I'm willing to bet that it won't be T20) will gradually disappear until there's nothing left of it, except for silly-looking administrators (to paraphrase Lewis Carroll).

Let's assume that there will be 3 formats of the game, and that a typical series would have 2 tests (sadly), 5 ODIs and 2 T20 games. Factor in ICC rules (can't locate it) that mandate at least 3 days gap between tests, 2 warm-up games (1 before the tests and 1 before the ODIs), at most 1 back-to-back ODI, 2 days gap between the other ODIs, 1 day gap between the T20 games and at least 1-2 days gap between each leg (Test, ODI & T20) legs of the tour. We're talking of something like a 40-day tour, with 21 playing days. Nearly half the tour's duration would be devoted to the 5-day game (either the actual playing days or the warm-ups or the time between first-class games). It definitely does seem like the softest target. Remove the tests from the tour, and you can easily squeeze in at least 5 more ODIs.

Now, on an average, each team plays around 3 test series during a year. Let's assume that all these series are 2-test, 5-ODI & 2-T20 affairs (which is a very simplistic & minimal assumption). So we're talking of a total touring time of 120 days, out of which just over half are playing days. If only it was so simple.

There are ICC tournaments to contend with, each lasting 30-40 days at least, on an annual basis. Then there are some series that don't fit in to the minimalistic 2-5-2 model. They may have 3 tests, 5 ODIs and 2 T20 games. Others like Australia's tour of England have 5 tests, 7 ODIs and 2 T20 games. That tour started on June 24 (excluding the T20 World Cup) and will end on Sep 20 - nearly 3 months, with nearly 50 playing days! Then there are some other meaningless tri-nation tournaments. Then there're the new leagues - IPL and Champions League.

So, players could be "on-the-road" for something like 220-250 days a year, playing on around 120-140 of those days.

Isn't it still obvious that if the ICC continues to harp on retaining 3 formats, something is going to give?

Yet, will it necessarily result in T20 driving the 50-over game out of existence? I suspect not, primarily for commercial reasons.

Assuming that other factors are identical across both the formats (i.e. teams play out the entire allotment of overs, and lose the same number of wickets), TV viewers watching a 50-over game would see 60% more ads than when they were watching a T20 game (figure it out - 49 over-breaks v/s 19 over-breaks per innings).

Even though you can squeeze in 2 T20 games within the duration of 1 50-over ODI, the number of ad-breaks between overs is reduced by 22% (49 v/s 2x19). We haven't even got to the possibility that more wickets are likely to fall across 50 overs compared to 20 overs, thereby increasing the number of ad breaks!

Even the ECB's (and Cricket South Africa's) moves to 40-over cricket will fail for the same reason - 20% less ad-breaks. The BCCI is unlikely to support the ECB & CSA on this. Cricket Australia moved away from the tri-series format only this year. So they're unlikely to take a plunge without having evaluated the benefits of staging 2 bilateral ODI series compared to the ODI triangular format. There's probably not too much of a point in discussing what other countries will do.

In any case, the ICC had already announced the venues for the next 3 World Cups over three years ago. This doesn't imply that a change in realities won't make them change the format of those tournaments. After all, the 2010 edition of the ICC Champions Trophy (hosted by West Indies) was converted into the T20 World Cup. Such a move would need the BCCI's backing (and by implication a few other boards that kow-tow to them), and that seems very unlikely at this point in time.

Labels: burnout, fatigue, future, odi, prediction, test cricket, twenty20

Thus spake Jagadish @ 12:00 am | Sledge/Read 5 sledge(s)
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Wisden announces cricketers of the year for 2008

The latest edition of the Wisden Cricketers' Almanack has the list of the cricketers of 2008. Remember that the names are primarily chosen based on the English cricket season, and no one can be a "Cricketer of the year" more than once.

This time around, for the first time, a woman has been selected in the list - England batsman Claire Taylor. The others are James Anderson, Dale Benkenstein, Mark Boucher and Neil McKenzie.

This would be such a huge boost for women's cricket in general and in particular in England, considering they won the Women's World Cup recently.

The identity of the "Leading Cricketer in the World" award is not yet known. If the performances from 1 Jan 2008 to 31 Dec 2008 were taken into account, the top 2 in each category are:

	Tests	ODIs	T20
Batting	Graeme Smith and Virender Sehwag	Gautam Gambhir and Mahendra Singh Dhoni	Hamilton Masakadza and Salman Butt
Bowling	Dale Steyn, Harbhajan Singh and Mitchell Johnson	Ajantha Mendis and Muttiah Muralitharan	Harvir Baidwan and Ajantha Mendis

Given the sensation he created last year with his bowling style and the effectiveness of his style, and considering he picked up the ICC award for Best Debutant, I wouldn't be surprised if Ajantha Mendis was announced as the "Leading Cricketer in the World".

Labels: almanack, awards, prediction, wisden, women

Thus spake Jagadish @ 1:27 pm | Sledge/Read 3 sledge(s)
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The battles at the top and the bottom

Although I'm sure that spin will have a significant impact on the result of the India v Australia series, I believe that the key turning points will be at the top and at the bottom.

I have a nagging feeling that India's seamers (presumably two out of Zaheer, Ishant and Munaf will play all the tests) will have a very significant role to play. Australia will rely heavily on Hayden, Ponting, Clarke & Hussey. So if India's quicks can dismiss Hayden & Ponting quickly, the middle and lower order is under that much more pressure.

Similarly, India will rely heavily, as they have for the past 2-3 years, on Sehwag. If he gets a good start, it allows Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman and Ganguly (that's my preferred batting order) to bat around him. But Australia will need Lee, Clark and Johnson to blow holes in India's batting lineup to bowl India out cheaply.

At the other end of the batting order, the contributions from the lower order batsmen will be vital. As we saw in the warm-up game, Hussey and Clark nearly put on 100 for the last wicket. If something of that nature happens in a test match, Australia will have either recovered spectacularly or rubbed salt into some very sore wounds.

India will also need its lower order to contribute. A lineup of Harbhajan, Kumble, Zaheer, Ishant (or Munaf) is hardly scary. The lower order collapsed spectacularly in the fourth innings at Sydney. There were collapses at Chennai against South Africa and multiple occasions in Sri Lanka.

Labels: aus v ind 2008, prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 8:48 pm | Sledge/Read 0 sledge(s)
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My prediction for Australia's XI for the first test

Simon Katich opened the batting, after Phil Jaques was left out for the warm-up match against the Board President's XI side. So he will almost definitely open the batting with Hayden.

Jason Krejza's performance outing (0/123 from 20 overs & 0/76 from 11 overs) was obviously a bit of a shock to the system.

As a result of these two developments, I think Australia will go in for a 4-man quick bowling attack supported by left-arm spin twins (Katich & Clarke).

I think Australia's XI will be: Hayden, Jaques, Ponting (c), Clarke, Hussey, Katich, Watson, Haddin (wk), Lee, Johnson & Clark.

But, if Watson cuts himself badly while shaving, Krejza or White will play.

There's a different prediction you can vote for in the poll - What will the result of the series be?

Labels: aus v ind 2008, prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 7:40 pm | Sledge/Read 0 sledge(s)
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The future of cricket, as I see it

A few days after a Twenty20 Champions League was announced, followed promptly by the ECB's partnership (?) with Allen Stanford for a series of five Twenty20 games where the winner of each game received US $20 million (and the loser got to watch the winner's cheques), it is fairly obvious that the ICC's hold on cricket is being loosened, and big time at that!

For all their talk about how having three forms of the game is so wonderful, it is hard to see how the ICC can come up with a calendar which accommodates enough quantities of test, 50-over and 20-over cricket. In fact, it is all the more baffling that even after these two announcements, they have not said a word about the impact on their vision for international cricket.

Instead, what we got was an announcement yesterday about the launch of the ICC Champions Trophy 2008 in Pakistan. Now that tournament is probably the most despised one-day tournament in the world given how it turns up unnecessarily every couple of years, a year before, or a year after the World Cup.

It does seem as though the ICC is totally oblivious about how the big money flowing in to promote Twenty20 will impact test and 50-over cricket. Assuming that all 3 forms of the game will co-exist, and every year there's one major ICC event lasting a month, it's hard to put up a schedule which accomodates 10 tests per country per year and 30 ODIs, aside from Twenty20 games. So is it fair to assume that in a few years, we won't actually have 3 forms of the game?

You can vote in our poll on a hypothetical scenario where the ICC allowed you to choose the two forms of the game. Which ones would you choose: Tests and Twenty20, ODIs and Twenty20 or Tests and ODIs?.

I don't believe there's enough time in the international calendar to support 3 forms of the game in addition to tournaments like the PLPL, TTPL, IPL, SAWEPL, WSPL, etc. Given that aside from England and West Indies, most other countries have overlapping domestic and international cricket seasons, it is highly unlikely that cricketers would be able to play for sufficient lengths of time in more than one such league.

Brendon McCullum, to pick a random name, could turn out for his IPL team for 3-4 games, scoot off to play 2 games in the TTPL, come back to the sub-continent for 2 games in the PLPL but miss out on the SAWEPL because he has to join his Kiwi mates for a test series against Bangladesh.

If Lalit Modi had his way, McCullum would have to apply to him for a work permit to play in other leagues. In the event that there was a conflict of interest between choosing which team to play for in the Champions League tournament, McCullum's interest would be over-riden by Lalit Modi's brainwave for the day. In addition, McCullum would need to be careful about who he hobnobs with and if he's caught talking to 'rebels', he can forget his pay cheque.

I don't think advertisers and sponsors are quite ready to throw away the 50-over game and the 8 uninterrupted hours of audience attention that they get through 100 guaranteed over-breaks, upto 20 wicket breaks and 1 hour of pre-match and post-match analysis. I believe that the ICC will end up kowtowing to 'market' interests and we will have (perhaps in the span of 5-8 years) two forms of the game, neither of which will seem remotely like the way they are now.

Bangladesh and Zimbabwe would still be playing test cricket, but they'd only play 3-day 'tests' against each other, Ireland & Kenya for 3 years and then move on to 4-day tests. All other test matches would perhaps still be played over 5 days, but there would be radical changes. Over rates would become faster, reaching 100 per day. Teams will be allowed to break-up the total number of overs they receive or bowl across two innings and the winner of the toss would choose from 3 options (1st innings overs faced-2nd innings overs faced): 150-100, 125-125 or 100-150. I'd detailed this out in a post in October 2004.

50-over and 20-over cricket will be merged and we will have 30-over games split across 3 innings of 10 overs each per team. There would be an alternating pattern to each team's innings (A1, B1, A2, B2, A3 & B3), similar to baseball. Each 10 over inning would have 3 overs of power-play, 2 of them at the start and 1 at the end. Teams would comprise 11 players, with only 7 allowed to bat. Boundary ropes would be around 50 m away from the wicket, enabling even scrawny chaps and no-hoper batsmen like Ashish Nehra to hit sixes. On a side note, there'd be some critics who'd complain that the middle 7 overs are boring. But those same critics would complain about the middle 3 balls being boring even if we reduced games to 1-over per innings! There'd be a Dirty-Thirty World Cup, sponsored by Surf (or pick your favourite detergent brand), held every 2 years.

Subhash Chandra would have wound up the Indian Cricket League in 2010 and Zee would thus get the telecast rights it wanted or ownership of an IPL team. It'd really seem like a win-win situation for all. Except that 30-year olds like Ambati Rayudu, Tejinder Pal Singh, R Sathish, Shalabh Srivastava and Abhishek Jhunjhunwala would feel so ridiculous that their prime years were spent (wasted?) in missing out on good money in the IPL and not being picked for India because of selectorial squabbles or because they were associated with the ICL. To paraphrase Marlon Brando's superb dialogue in 'On the Waterfront', they could have had class, they could have been contenders, they could have been somebodies. Instead of bums, which is what they became, let's face it!

Technology would finally be used appropriately in making several line decisions. Someone like Andrew Symonds would never keep getting away with umpiring howlers. Tony Cozier seems so frustrated, he forgets that this wasn't the first time in the last 6 months that Symonds has benefitted.

For a nation that is constantly hunting for 'the next big wrist spinner', Australia will give up their 5-year search for a half-decent spinner and settle on using Michael Clarke (current strike rate: 45, current avg: 20.5) and Andrew Symonds (current strike rate 83, current avg: 36.5) as their spinners in test cricket.

Shoaib Akhtar will be banned yet again, this time for using the Prime Minister's helicopter to arrive in time for a World Cup game. His excuse would be that he was helping the PM with campaigning for the general election.

Labels: champions trophy, future, icc, indian premier league, ipl 2008, lalit modi, prediction, stanford 2020, twenty20, umpires

Thus spake Jagadish @ 1:48 pm | Sledge/Read 1 sledge(s)
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Cape Town prediction

Ridiculous batting by the middle order has meant that India only scored 414 in the first innings at Cape Town. India slipped from 200/1 to 414 all out, with Dravid, Tendulkar and Laxman, all getting starts but not going on to make a century on what seems to be a fairly easy pitch to bat on.

Virender Sehwag finally breathed easy, providing some much needed impetus, but after he got out, the rest of the batting collapsed. India's lower order has scored valuable runs in the previous two tests. They've put helped the side go from 205/8 to 249 ao & 148/7 to 236 ao at Johannesburg and 179/7 to 240 ao at Durban. But they couldn't hang around with Sourav Ganguly this time.

My prediction is that South Africa will fall short of India's total, by around 50 runs, but blow away India for around 150 in the second innings, and then easily score the 200-odd and win the series 2-1.

Update: My alternative prediction (after seeing South Africa end on 144/1) is that South Africa will score 450, bowl out India for 150 and chase down 100-odd and win the series 2-1.

Labels: cape town, dravid, durban, ganguly, india, johannesburg, laxman, prediction, sehwag, south africa, tendulkar

Thus spake Jagadish @ 10:37 pm | Sledge/Read 3 sledge(s)
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Were you expecting any better?

There's a huge amount of discussion, inside and outside Parliament(!), about India's dismal show in the two one-dayers so far. Failing to notch up 100 in the first game, and letting South Africa slip from 76/6 to 274 and losing by over 100 runs yesterday, are both being debated about with a lot of passion.

But seriously, going by India's record against South Africa in South Africa, did you expect any better? I didn't.

Of course, it hurts, when a team you passionately support bats, bowls and fields like schoolboys. Actually hang on, a couple of schoolboys (actually more than a couple!) will take some serious offence to that statement, given their recent feat!

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 11:41 am | Sledge/Read 2 sledge(s)
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He asked for it

Ganesh urged me to put my superior prediction skills to effect for India's cause.

I therefore predict that Makhaya Ntini will get at least 15 wickets in the one-day series and 20 wickets in the tests to help South Africa overwhelm India.

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 6:39 pm | Sledge/Read 1 sledge(s)
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Scoreline prediction for India's tour of South Africa

India and South Africa play the first one-dayer today, with question marks over Sehwag's availability. The tour consists of five one-dayers, one Twenty20 game and three tests.

I'll stick my neck out, based on India's record against South Africa in tests, one-dayers in South Africa and recent batting form.

South Africa win the one-dayers 4-1. South Africa will win the Twenty20 game. South Africa will win the tests 2-0.

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 2:39 pm | Sledge/Read 5 sledge(s)
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Missed opportunities

Risque as it may sound, the one lesson that each and every team which played against Australia in the ICC Champions Trophy needs to learn is

When you've got Australia by the b@lls, you hold on!

England were 83/0 in 18 overs and I'm fairly sure Ponting was thinking about where a breakthrough was going to pop up from. Then Bell charged Watson and was caught at cover. India, after losing Tendulkar cheaply, were 120/2 in 27-odd overs. They should have got 275 at least. New Zealand had Australia at 4/2 in the 3rd over, and couldn't finish the job.

Yesterday, Ponting was probably on the verge of throwing in the towel when Gayle and Chanderpaul put on nearly 50 in 5 overs. Then, Chanderpaul got out. Sarwan then followed as did Gayle and finally Lara. In a matter of 7-8 overs, the game turned.

Does anyone have a clue about why Shane Watson (2/11 - Samuels & Baugh and 57 chasing 116) got the 'Player of the Match' award and not Nathan Bracken (3/22 - Chanderpaul, Gayle and Sarwan)? I realize Gayle was one of the stars of the tournament, but I think Damien Martyn, much as I dislike him [while Ganesh is an admirer], should have been the 'Player of the Series'. He played a significant, if understated, part in Australia's wins.

Labels: 2006 champions trophy, australia by the balls cliche, champions trophy, prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 10:38 am | Sledge/Read 4 sledge(s)
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Woof King Jagadish!

Brian Lara is dismissed just now for 2 runs off 19 deliveries and the first thing that struck my mind was my dear friend Jagadish's words on Friday - Lara to click bigtime in the final.

Jagadish, thou art definitely great at woofing!

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Ganesh @ 4:10 pm | Sledge/Read 2 sledge(s)
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Very promising stats

India and Australia have played each other in 9 one-dayers since the 2003 World Cup final.

The scoreline is overwhelmingly one-sided in Australia's favour, P 13, W 9, L 2, NR 2. As close to hopeless as you can find ahead of Sunday's allegedly marquee game.

The last time India beat Australia in a one-dayer was 9 matches ago. To put it in perspective, that was at a time when VVS Laxman played one-day internationals, John Wright was India's coach, no-one knew that Sourav Ganguly would not be part of the one-day side in a matter of a couple of years and Greg Chappell probably didn't even know Jagmohan Dalmiya's email address.

Given that my pre-tournament prediction (to Ganesh, on instant messenger) on Sri Lanka winning the trophy, and my change of stand when Pakistan emphatically said 'We are like this only', have been thrown into the dustbin, I'll try some reverse-woofing.

Australia to win on Sunday by a margin of at least 120 runs (if batting first) or 6 wickets (if chasing).

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 9:19 pm | Sledge/Read 2 sledge(s)
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Pakistan turning it on!

South Africa are right now 42/5 against Pakistan at Mohali in a must-win game for both teams. Pakistan are thus on track to fulfill my earlier prediction.

Update: South Africa are turning it on. Pakistan are 27/6, chasing 214! Ntini's analysis reads 5-2-8-5! Pakistan's batting scorecard is on its way to looking like a complete phone number: 3 4 7 5 0 1 4 0 3.

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 7:24 pm | Sledge/Read 2 sledge(s)
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Trent Bridge crystal ball

Much derided for his athleticism, fielding and batting, Monty Panesar has just taken his first ever five wicket haul in Sri Lanka's second innings at Trent Bridge. England need 325 to win, a total much less than what South Africa chased against Australia not too long ago in a one-dayer, and potentially the 14th highest chase in tests.

My prediction is that England will win, with one wicket to spare. The win will come when Monty Panesar dives for the all-important second run, having run the fastest 44 yards of his life. The third umpire will rule him in, only because his patka helped him get to the right side of the white line.

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 4:16 pm | Sledge/Read 0 sledge(s)
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Giles misses Lahore test, fulfills prediction

Ashley Giles was forced out of the final test at Lahore because of a hip injury. Giles missed two tests against Bangladesh because of the same injury and was termed England's jewel.

As a result of his not playing any part in the game, he now ends the series with 3 wickets at 82.33 and a strike-rate of 150, worse than what I had predicted before the tour started.

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 1:32 pm | Sledge/Read 0 sledge(s)
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Giles unlikely to be left out, on track to fulfill prediction

Even as England ponder playing four seamers and leaving out one spinner, given Ashley Giles' "seniority", it is highly likely that Shaun Udal will miss out at Lahore. Yesterday, England managed to hang on long enough on the final day of the Faisalabad test for the bad light to end the day's play and will now obviously look at drawing the series in the final test.

While England's performance, especially their second innings collapses and the way they bowled to Pakistan's tailenders yesterday, would really disappoint them, the good news for us Ashley Giles fans is that he is still on track to end the series with a bowling average around 60 and a strike rate in excess of 90.

His stats currently read 3 wickets at 82.3 each and a strike rate of 150. Having tripled his overall wicket tally on the second day at Faisalabad, he threatened to make me eat my words again. But a superlative performance in the second innings where he failed to pick up a wicket gave me a breather.

I cannot wait for the Lahore test to end. Go! My hero!

Labels: prediction

Thus spake Jagadish @ 8:39 pm | Sledge/Read 0 sledge(s)
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