Too early to call the IPL semi-final line-up?

The Indian Premier League points table indicates that Deccan Chargers, Delhi Daredevils and Mumbai Indians should take up 3 of the 4 semi-final spots. Yet, it is perhaps worth pointing out that less than a third of the league phase games of this IPL season have been completed.

Each team plays 14 games in the league phase and most teams have something like 9-10 games more to play. That's a huge number of games still in hand to reliably predict a semi-final lineup. Bangalore Royal Challengers maybe down right now, but you really can't rule out anything for any side right now.

The key aspect in the remaining games is who will be available, who won't be and who will replace the ones that're missing.

The only international cricket being played is West Indies tour of England. The teams impacted are Kolkata Knight Riders (Gayle), Bangalore Royal Challengers (Pietersen) and Delhi Daredevils (Shah and Collingwood - are they both considered great 12th man material? Is that why Delhi bought them and haven't bothered playing both yet, especially considering they're going to be unavailable from next week?). Chennai Super Kings have already lost Flintoff.

Some of the Aussies currently playing against Pakistan will return. Kings XI Punjab will especially benefit considering they will have Hopes and Lee back (Marsh is injured). Bracken will be back for Bangalore Royal Challengers, Hussey (David, not Michael who's currently shopping for runs in Perth) returns for Kolkata Knight Riders, Symonds returns for Deccan Chargers and Watson for Rajasthan Royals, providing he doesn't injure himself while collecting his bags after getting off the flight from Dubai to Johannesburg.

Then there are some reasonably known 'foreign' players who haven't even been used so far (BRC - Cameron White; DC - Chamara Silva, Vaas & Zoysa; DD - Andrew McDonald & Maharoof; KXIP - Katich & Pomersbach; KKR - Langeveldt, Mortaza; MI - Dilhara Fernando, Mills, Ashraful & Ronchi; RR - Morne Morkel). Some others (McGrath, Fleming, Dravid) will probably turn up if needed.

It is perhaps safe to assume that by and large, the Indian players without international experience, who will probably start getting more opportunities now, will not significantly impact the result of too many games.

For evidence, the most runs made so far by an Indian player who hasn't featured in any (or too many) internationals for India is 88 from 5 innings by Virat Kohli. Next best is Ravindra Jadeja's 70 in 3 innings. Karan Goel's 57 from 4 innings is the highest by someone who has no international experience. The most wickets by an Indian player who hasn't played any internationals is Kamran Khan's 5 wickets from 3 games.

Last season, Yusuf Pathan (having played 1 T20 game for India) and Manpreet Gony were the best among those Indian players who didn't have any (or too much) international experience.

Looking at the list of new entrants (and those who haven't yet played), Mumbai Indians and Deccan Chargers seem best placed since they won't lose people and will have enough quality players available to pick from. Kings XI Punjab will gain the most since their Aussie players will be available and the bowling gets strengthened. Pietersen is an impact player, so even though he has flopped majorly so far, he could have turned it around in a couple of games to get Bangalore Royal Challengers' campaign back on the rails. Bracken is an excellent bowler, but Bangalore's main problem is the batting. Kolkata Knight Riders will suffer since Gayle will leave and assuming Langeveldt/Mortaza aren't drafted into the captaincy committee, that's one less skipper for them.

So now, maybe it isn't too far fetched if I predicted that Mumbai Indians and Deccan Chargers should make it to 2 of the 4 semi-final spots. Kings XI Punjab and Delhi Daredevils will in all likelihood make up the remaining 2 semi-finalists. But hang on, that is essentially what the points table is telling us right now! Like Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr said, "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose" (the more things change, the more they stay the same).

Labels: india, indian premier league, ipl 2009, twenty20

Thus spake Jagadish @ 12:33 PM | Sledge/Read 14 sledge(s) | Related posts
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Sudden growth spurt in Andy Caddick ears detected as contributing to memory loss

In the context of Kevin Pietersen's recent comments on how the England tour of West Indies was far too long and that he'd missed his wife, Andy Caddick was quoted as saying

The simple fact is that you're there to play cricket, that's your bloody job. So forget your salaries, your cars, your watches and get on with it. Troops going to Afghanistan don't get a choice. They just do the job.

This is really rich, coming from someone who didn't quite do his job, forget his cars, watches or get on with it when opting out from the test cricket leg of the 2001/02 tour to India.

Labels: caddick, england

Thus spake Jagadish @ 4:47 PM | Sledge/Read 2 sledge(s) | Related posts
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Breaking news: Pakistan will not co-host the 2011 World Cup

As noted on a twitter update just now, Reuters reports that the ICC has ruled that Pakistan will not co-host the 2011 World Cup.

If you have an opinion about who's to blame for this move, pick from the options below!

	The PCB
	The ICC's double standards
	The BCCI and Sri Lanka Cricket
	Rest of the world (Australia, England, New Zealand, South Africa & West Indies)
	The Indian Premier League
Pollhost.com

Labels: 2011, 2011 world cup, breaking news, icc, pakistan, security, terrorism

Thus spake Jagadish @ 8:06 PM | Sledge/Read 1 sledge(s) | Related posts
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Where's the ruthlessness?

It is now a week since India won the test series against New Zealand 1-0. Yet, as has already been commented in a lot of places, the scoreline should really have been 2-0.

In just 7 tests as India's captain (won 5, drawn 2), MS Dhoni has already twice exhibited a strangely defensive mindset. First, at Mohali against England where the batting was needlessly defensive in the 1st innings and and an unnecessary and unhealthy focus on seeing if Gambhir and Yuvraj could get their centuries in the 2nd innings.

At Wellington, I don't think the declaration was significantly delayed. I know setting a target of 600+ in the last innings is a bit outlandish, but at least the positive intent was there while batting. The main problem is that the field setting during New Zealand's "chase" was ridiculously defensive a lot of the time, particularly after McCullum was wrongly given out.

For some strange reason, Daniel Vettori was allowed to pick up singles. Now, he's not a bad batsman and but for the need to preserve the image of New Zealand's "batsmen" he'd have consistently gone in at #5 or #6. Yet, given the state of the game and the immense pressure he'd have been under, there was a real shortage of close-in fielders. This tendency to "allow" the "better" lower order batsman to get off strike with the intention of focussing on the bunny at the other end is something I've seen several Indian teams employ. I dare say, it has failed every single time, for a variety of reasons (poor field placement, dropped catches, bad fielding, plain luck, etc.)

The ruthlessness that you expect from a side which targets a #1 position in ODIs by 2009 and in tests by 2010 (incidentally the very first time that a short-term vision is being outlined by someone representing the BCCI) has been absent for a while.

One could point out that South Africa lost the Sydney test while Australia lost at Cape Town. After all, if the other top two sides also seem to take it easy in "dead rubbers", why blame India?

Yet, why should the Indian team use the current Australian team as benchmark? Why not set new standards?

In the 18 series that Dhoni has captained, India have lost the final match after sealing the series on 4 occasions (v Pakistan in India, v Sri Lanka away twice and the recent ODI series v New Zealand). Add in the diffidence at Mohali and Wellington and you have to question if the team management is satisfied being a #3 side or if it really wants to be #1 soon.

There is absolutely no doubt that the side has the ability to do even better. What it does need though is someone other than Yuvraj at #6. Yuvraj is 27 while the others vying for the slot (Suresh Raina, Subramaniam Badrinath & Rohit Sharma) are 22, 28 and 25. In fact, if Irfan Pathan sorts out his bowling soon enough, I'd add him to the mix as well. After Sourav Ganguly's retirement, none of the top 6 bowl anything other than spin (excluding Tendulkar's all-sorts). So Irfan would provide a wonderful option. He can't bat worse than Yuvraj, so all he has to do is to get the bowling together and contribute something like 15-5-35-1 (with the occasional 2-3 wicket "haul") every innings as a 3rd seamer. That would be invaluable.

So really there's nothing to be lost in giving these chaps a few chances. I wouldn't associate any stigma with Yuvraj Singh not being able to make it in test cricket. He is one of the best batsmen in limited overs cricket. He has had enough opportunities, and I'll stick to my stand. He is an excellent replacement batsman, but he should never be a first choice pick despite him playing the odd sensational innings.

For all the talk of Michael Bevan not succeeding in test cricket, I think it suffices to point out his ODI record and the number of times he's won a game for Australia. There're several other players who come to mind - notably Symonds and Rhodes (batting & fielding) & Harris and Saqlain (bowling). Does that diminish their achievements? I don't think so. I'm not devaluing test cricket. But assuming that achievements in test cricket count significantly more than those in the other formats of the game is unfair.

A statistic to end this - Before this series win, the last time India won the test and ODI series of a tour (excluding those involving Bangladesh & Zimbabwe) was in Pakistan in 2004. If you exclude the sub-continent, the last occasion was in England in 1986.

Labels: dhoni, india, new zealand, positive intent, ruthlessness, statistic, yuvraj

Thus spake Jagadish @ 11:12 PM | Sledge/Read 2 sledge(s) | Related posts
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Hardly breaking news - Sunil Gavaskar faces conflict of interest situation yet again

An English newspaper editor once wrote about Sunil Gavaskar - "He has an inability to realize a conflict of interest even when it stared at him in the face". He keeps proving it right every now and then.

In early 2007, he and Ricky Ponting had a slanging match when Gavaskar commented on Australia's behaviour and in response Ponting pointed out that Gavaskar had no business talking of behaviour when he had famously dragged along Chetan Chauhan after being given out lbw off Lillee at the MCG in 1980.

Then last year he alleged at race being involved in Mike Procter's decision to ban Harbhajan for 3 tests after the events at Sydney. David Morgan, the then President-elect of the ICC, expressed concern over the conflict of interest (Gavaskar was ICC Cricket Committee chairman & cricket columnist/commentator). A couple of months later, there were rumours that Gavaskar would be asked to choose from one of his roles and in April of 2008, he resigned from his role as chairman of the ICC's Cricket Committee.

In a column published last weekend, he rubbished John Buchanan's idea of having multiple captains by wondering aloud why people even bothered listening to him. He pointed out that Buchanan had successfully got roles within the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) support staff for a lot of Queensland friends. He also generally rubbished Buchanan's coaching skills, qualifications & achievements.

Sunil Gavaskar is a member of the IPL's Governing Council. Thus, he really has no business passing judgement on the strategies and plans proposed or adopted by any of the teams that are playing in the tournament. If he isn't on the governing council, he is well justified in criticizing (or applauding) what the various teams do (or don't do). But since he is, surely it is a huge conflict of interest. If there was some decision that the IPL Governing Council needed to make regarding something related to KKR, that team would be be perfectly justified in demanding that Sunny recused himself from the proceedings.

Labels: conflict of interest, gavaskar, indian premier league, ipl 2009, twenty20

Thus spake Jagadish @ 5:46 PM | Sledge/Read 3 sledge(s) | Related posts
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Rahul Dravid gets the catches record

Predicting events in cricket can make you look like a bit of a goose. Think about a pitch report analysis offered by the TV commentary team at the start of play. The 'expert' tends to think that what they're saying makes a reasonable amount of sense and have a fair amount of confidence in the prediction succeeding. Us, gullible viewers, fall hook, line and sinker. But like we've seen, "experts" who declare pitches as having something in it for the bowlers look so sheepish (although they're never questioned on their judgement!) when the score reads 340/2 at stumps or when a pitch pronounced a "batting beauty" produces a first innings score of 201 all out in a ODI game.

Over 4.5 years ago, I made a prediction on this blog, that Dravid would have the world record for most catches by a fielder by the time he retired.

I am willing to stick my neck out and say that that he would have the world record when he hangs up his boots, with stiff competition from Fleming. In his last 40 tests, Dravid has taken 61 catches and 33 catches in his last 20 tests. Assuming he plays on till he is 36, which is 4 years away, he'd have played another 40 odd tests which means another 65-70 catches. That'd definitely put him within reach of Mark Waugh's current record of 181. It is certainly not an impossibility.

Today, Dravid caught Tim McIntosh to go past Mark Waugh's record. You could say it was so bloody obvious that Dravid would get past the record, but I made the call, and you didn't, did you?! :)

Dravid's fielding career can be roughly divided into two phases. For the first 4-5 years of his test career, he used to primarily stand at short-leg or silly-point and he excelled in those positions. In those first few years, his catches per innings was 0.63. After that, since 2000, it is 0.78. You could attribute it to multiple factors - a better quality bowling lineup, improving his catching technique, more opportunities (since by then Azhar had been shunted out, Tendulkar had moved out of sight and as captain, Ganguly perhaps felt more comfortable from other positions). But at the same time, VVS Laxman had also started making a mark as a slip fielder, Sehwag too joined in a few years later and over the last couple of years, Tendulkar is back in the slips. So there has been "competition".

The three current players who have a chance are Ricky Ponting (148), Jacques Kallis (147) and Mahela Jayawardene (142). Surprisingly though, Ponting (0.575) and Kallis (0.590) both have rather poor dismissals/innings records. As the youngest among the 3, Mahela is most likely to get past Dravid, considering he averages 0.82 catches an innings in the last 100 innings and he has a lot of opportunities to take catches standing at slip to Murali, Mendis and Vaas. But he'll need to play something like 3-4 to get there (assuming Dravid ends up with ~ 190, that means Mahela needs 48 catches, which would take something like 60 innings in 30 tests across 3.5-4 years) I don't know if that's too likely.

Labels: catching, dravid, fielding, mark waugh, record

Thus spake Jagadish @ 12:10 PM | Sledge/Read 1 sledge(s) | Related posts
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Wisden announces cricketers of the year for 2008

The latest edition of the Wisden Cricketers' Almanack has the list of the cricketers of 2008. Remember that the names are primarily chosen based on the English cricket season, and no one can be a "Cricketer of the year" more than once.

This time around, for the first time, a woman has been selected in the list - England batsman Claire Taylor. The others are James Anderson, Dale Benkenstein, Mark Boucher and Neil McKenzie.

This would be such a huge boost for women's cricket in general and in particular in England, considering they won the Women's World Cup recently.

The identity of the "Leading Cricketer in the World" award is not yet known. If the performances from 1 Jan 2008 to 31 Dec 2008 were taken into account, the top 2 in each category are:

	Tests	ODIs	T20
Batting	Graeme Smith and Virender Sehwag	Gautam Gambhir and Mahendra Singh Dhoni	Hamilton Masakadza and Salman Butt
Bowling	Dale Steyn, Harbhajan Singh and Mitchell Johnson	Ajantha Mendis and Muttiah Muralitharan	Harvir Baidwan and Ajantha Mendis

Given the sensation he created last year with his bowling style and the effectiveness of his style, and considering he picked up the ICC award for Best Debutant, I wouldn't be surprised if Ajantha Mendis was announced as the "Leading Cricketer in the World".

Labels: almanack, awards, prediction, wisden, women

Thus spake Jagadish @ 1:27 PM | Sledge/Read 3 sledge(s) | Related posts
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