Time to review the Net Run Rate rule
The Net Run Rate calculation is used during multi-team tournaments as a 'tie breaker' when two or more teams are level on points and in their head-to-head results. Net Run Rate for a team is the run rate at which the team has scored runs minus the run rate which the team has conceded in all the games they've played. So if team A played two games, scoring 300 in 50 overs and 120 all out and conceded 280 in 50 overs and 121 in 30 overs, their net run rate would be -0.81 (Their run rate is 4.2 [420 in 100 ov] and they conceded 5.01 [401 in 80 ov]).
The problem with this method is that teams which are in trouble and need to improve their net run rate will obviously try to do so against weaker opponents
, like India did against Bermuda a couple of days ago. My suggestion is that the net run rate calculation should first involve only the teams that are tied on points & head to head results. If that doesn't work (for e.g. if there were two teams tied thus and the game between them, the obvious way to find the NRR in games involving them, was tied/washed out), only then the net run rate calculation should be extended to all matches they played in. Doing so would increase the importance of the matches between these teams and reduce the games against the weaker teams.
So, if Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka are tied on points and in their head-to-head games (i.e. if India defeat Sri Lanka), the first tie breaker should be the run rates in the Bangladesh-India, Bangladesh-Sri Lanka and India-Sri Lanka games. The calculations
would then be a little different, obviously. The NRR, before the India-Sri Lanka game, would be Bangladesh -1.87, India -0.14 and Sri Lanka +3.93, as opposed to the how it looks now
(Bangladesh -2.00, India +2.57 and Sri Lanka +4.59). Using such a model, the only possibilities for Bangladesh to go through are Sri Lanka winning against India with India folding up for something like 125 and Sri Lanka getting the runs in 14 overs or so or India making 200 and Sri Lanka making 201 in 18 overs or so.
In fact, I wanted to put up this post yesterday, complete in the knowledge that this sort of net run rate calculation would mean that India would have been at a disadvantage. Bangladesh have done themselves no favours
by losing so heavily to Sri Lanka. But Sri Lanka are looking awesome and it's going to take more than a special last-ditch effort for India to win. Sri Lanka would obviously like Bangladesh to qualify along with them so that they take two points into the Super Eight stage. So we're definitely not going to see any lack of effort on their side, since a loss decreases their chances of qualifying.
Labels: 2007 world cup, bangladesh, india, sri lanka, world cup